What Happened?
Shares of regional banking company KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) jumped 3.9% in the morning session after the company released a positive investor presentation for the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, highlighting expectations for a record revenue year. The presentation detailed a strong financial outlook, with the company projecting adjusted total revenue to grow by more than 15% year-over-year. Additionally, net interest income was anticipated to increase by over 22%. KeyCorp also outlined its plans to return capital to shareholders, including the repurchase of approximately $200 million in shares in the fourth quarter. This move was part of a larger, remaining authorization of about $800 million for capital returns.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $20.23, up 4.3% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
KeyCorp’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 6 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 18 days ago when the stock gained 3.6% on the news that comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted hopes for an interest rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams stated that he sees “room for a further adjustment” for interest rates in the near term. Following his speech, traders increased their bets on a rate cut, with the probability of a December reduction jumping from around 39% to over 70%, according to data from CME Group. This optimism is particularly beneficial for homebuilders, as lower interest rates translate into more affordable mortgages for potential buyers, which could stimulate demand for new homes. The positive sentiment was also reflected in the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury, a benchmark for mortgage rates, eased following the comments.
KeyCorp is up 19.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $20.23 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of KeyCorp’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,260.
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